What is quantitative easing and how will it affect you?
What is quantitative easing and how will it affect you?
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How Does Quantitative Easing Affect Currency Value
Quantitative Easing and the Forex Market
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What Is Quantitative Easing (QE) and How It Affects Forex ...
Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?
Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”
By ****\* March 16, 2020 After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets. Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround. We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%. This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.) As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels. Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)
Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy
To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process. Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth. Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation. Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard. Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines. Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly. All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while. Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble. Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy. The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry. In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer. There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating. What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…
The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time. Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future. The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable. Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe. This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy. Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else. The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO. The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today. The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy. It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming. Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook. Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary. But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…
What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle
The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing. Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power. That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output. Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better. To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors. Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it. The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term. We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently. The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios. Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now. For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar). Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone. In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year. Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.
Heavy Price Deflation Ahead
Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis. Why does that matter over the long term? Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger. The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying. Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies. The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt. The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs. For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets. In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.
What to Do Now
In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes. The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves. For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others. As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious. I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies. Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker. Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise. At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? (68 points, 12 comments)
Do powerful unions increase wages above the optimal level, or do firms with market power cause imperfect competition in the labor market, causing sub optimal wages? (Or both?) (29 points, 2 comments)
How do the salaries of high paid professionals compare between the US and various other developed countries? (28 points, 1 comment)
Just how much more expensive is it to build on mountainous terrain than on flat land? How much more expensive would housing have to be before it's economical to develop the mountains of Hong Kong? (27 points, 5 comments)
When it is said that someone in a third world country lives on a dollar a day, what does that actually mean? (25 points, 19 comments)
How do economists measure unpaid work? (23 points, 8 comments)
What's the economic effect of legal vs illegal immigration? (22 points, 10 comments)
If someone saved enough money to live on investment income, could their descendants live off it indefinitely? (Assuming they don't spend the principle, reinvest to account for inflation, etc, of course.) (20 points, 46 comments)
How effectively can negative externalities be quantified? (11 points, 7 comments)
What are some common misconceptions about economics? (11 points, 19 comments)
Do economists actually calculate consumer surplus empirically, or is it more of s theoretical concept? (19 points, 5 comments)
If we have cobb douglas preferences, my demand for x is not a function of the price of y. How do substitution effects arise then? (13 points, 6 comments)
Is me making more money than I would necessarily require to work( so more than my 'opportunity wage') for a job an economic inefficiency? or is ineffiency in labor markets a wedge between my marginal revenue product and my wage? (11 points, 3 comments)
understanding equilibrium in a dynamic context? (6 points, 1 comment)
Trying to understand economies of scale, e.g. costco (5 points, 5 comments)
Why does inflation necessarily mean wages will be increasing too? (5 points, 3 comments)
question about equilibrium tax incidence (3 points, 1 comment)
trying to understand the utility of theoretical models (3 points, 3 comments)
when firms are earning short run economic profit, does that just mean all factors of production are earning more than their opportunity cost? so firms entering the industry = labor and capital reallocating towards that industry by forming new firms? (3 points, 1 comment)
Do most economists think political and economic freedoms are intrinsically tied together? How do they explain the success of extremely authoritarian capitalist governments (Singapore, China, South Korea, Chile)? (37 points, 25 comments)
Why are salaries for professionals so much higher in the United States than other developed countries? (20 points, 34 comments)
Why do Information Technology workers are so high in demand and earn so much in Western countries but doesn't even get sustenance wage in Bangladesh? (30 points, 10 comments)
Anyone know of a comprehensive list of all the sub disciplines one can do a PhD in Economics, Finance and Business? (6 points, 4 comments)
Which PhD sub disciplines have the least math but still good employability prospects in academia and industry? (5 points, 19 comments)
What is the best website to publish your working papers in Economics? (3 points, 4 comments)
Do I have to prove factual assertions before providing my arguments on economic policy suggestions for a journal article? (2 points, 4 comments)
Why is the Ready Made Garments industry of Bangladesh declining due to withdrawal of trade privileges of Western countries when prices are already competitive in the world market? (2 points, 1 comment)
Are qualitative policy prescription papers accepted by most journals or are they better of in blog posts? (1 point, 7 comments)
What is the best free website for working papers in Economics? (1 point, 3 comments)
Where can I find data on work conditions and how hard is the work of foreign students who work alongside their studies legally or illegally? (1 point, 0 comments)
Which metrics do I need, to find out the effects of outward remittance on a poor economy? (1 point, 5 comments)
Is China still considered a centrally planned economy? (16 points, 4 comments)
Ressources on the Soviet industrial failures due to poor economics? (15 points, 2 comments)
What is the reason behind France's high unemployment rate? (10 points, 13 comments)
About Land Value Tax & Single Tax: how would it affect farmers and those of them who own their land? (9 points, 3 comments)
Does welfare policies contribute to inflation? (2 points, 1 comment)
If a Bitcoin is worth $1 000 000 and some persons like Satoshi have one or more millions of it... what power do they have? Can they disrupt the financial system with the huge amount of dollars that they have? (0 points, 8 comments)
The Tax Bill of 2017 reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Tax haven countries have rates as low as 15%. Why would companies be more likely to move money back to the US if they still aren’t getting a better rate? (47 points, 6 comments)
So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? by benjaminikuta (68 points, 12 comments)
If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises by imadeadinside (65 points, 16 comments)
Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? by gh0bs (47 points, 32 comments)
The Tax Bill of 2017 reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Tax haven countries have rates as low as 15%. Why would companies be more likely to move money back to the US if they still aren’t getting a better rate? by furikakebabe (47 points, 6 comments)
For all the economists out there that got advanced degrees, what were your most influential assigned readings? by wcoleman22 (45 points, 23 comments)
When economists refer to industrialization, does it mean a move from agricultural to manufacturing economy? Is the growth in services a different term? (22 points, 6 comments)
Do economists actually calculate consumer surplus empirically, or is it more of s theoretical concept? (20 points, 5 comments)
If we have cobb douglas preferences, my demand for x is not a function of the price of y. How do substitution effects arise then? (11 points, 6 comments)
Is me making more money than I would necessarily require to work( so more than my 'opportunity wage') for a job an economic inefficiency? or is ineffiency in labor markets a wedge between my marginal revenue product and my wage? (11 points, 3 comments)
why is ceteris paribus important for analyzing/thinking about the world? (11 points, 7 comments)
Why does inflation necessarily mean wages will be increasing too? (6 points, 3 comments)
Can the Euro become the global currency for trade? (17 points, 3 comments)
Is China still considered a centrally planned economy? (16 points, 4 comments)
Ressources on the Soviet industrial failures due to poor economics? (14 points, 2 comments)
What is the reason behind France's high unemployment rate? (9 points, 14 comments)
About Land Value Tax & Single Tax: how would it affect farmers and those of them who own their land? (7 points, 3 comments)
Does welfare policies contribute to inflation? (2 points, 1 comment)
If a Bitcoin is worth $1 000 000 and some persons like Satoshi have one or more millions of it... what power do they have? Can they disrupt the financial system with the huge amount of dollars that they have? (1 point, 8 comments)
Not sure if this is the kind of question I should be asking here. I’m an Undergrad Econ major and I’m looking for reading recommendations. Anything from economic theory, history, current research, etc. Main interest is Macro. Thanks (4 points, 5 comments)
https://preview.redd.it/w4ajxmo155d11.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=720f1a620c7f7919f5f8c93eca783e6a5186a044 4 min read - Philosophy & Introduction — Inziderx HI, in my previous article, I explained the “Reasons, Concepts and Vision” of InziderX Exchange. In this article, I want to dive into the white paper and explain the philosophical reasons that surround the birth of the idea. This world, our reality, the human experience we live in, has always been tied to a historical epoch, where some characteristics weigh more than others. The 21st century battle of what remains of capitalism and communism, after two world wars. And now we are confronted with what previously would be perceived as an Orwellian reality by the people who lived in the 1950s. It is the game of Hegel: thesis / anti — thesis / synthesis. The human condition has involved since, but it seems that we always want more of life, a better condition for all. The blockchain is a tool, which has no opinion on these considerations by simply avoiding the subject, jumping over it; acting as if these realities were those of yesterday. In fact, it may be the opposite, the blockchain takes the best in each of these concepts: capitalism — the incentive, the community — compassion, and makes its own synthesis! By passing what may have been intend for it. Satoshi Nakamoto is still anonymous, the BTC the new world currency, part of that might seem fony. There is obviously more under the subject. An watchful eye can see Kings and Queens moving on the board. From the InziderX white paper: “ Abstract Satoshi Nakamoto; the name itself looks like a pseudonym. As long as his identity is unknown, it will be impossible to know what his true intentions were when he made the Bitcoin code available to the public in 2009 — based on two technologies already in existence at the time: hascash and PGP but with the addition of an ingenious solution to the problem of double spending. The message included in the genesis block could be a clue: “The Times 3 January 2009 Chancellor on the second bailout point for banks”. Has he achieved his goal? Introduction The empire is on fire, the new game in town is the “digital assets”. After the announcement of the future XBT, it was official. Despite the blame on this new intangible asset, the biggest players in the “old” market are silently positioning themselves on the new one. On February 26, 2018, Bloomberg published an article claiming that Circle Financial Ltd, funded by the world’s largest investment bank, Goldman Sach, purchased the Poloniex stock exchange for $ 400 million. The bank JPMorgan, whose famous director Jamie Dimon has repeatedly discredited those who invest in Bitcoin and called this technology a fraud, recently invented its own system of decentralized transactions named Quorum — a modified copy of the Ethereum code. Blythe Master, a global investment personality, became CEO of Digital Asset Holding LLC in 2015, a financial technology company opened in 2014 to develop blockchain technologies for the entire investment industry, financial services such as: as market infrastructure providers. and the banks. Ripple and his wealthy director, already present themselves as Bitcoin for banks. For a watchful eye, the examples are not lacking and all he needs is to read between the lines to know what will follow. After the collapse of the 2008 real estate market and the rescue of banks by the FED, the Dow Jones index has been inflated by more than 300% from its low of 6626 in 2008 to 26 667 in 2018. The Heng Seng of 200% from 10,600 to 33,642, the DAX 125% from 3458 to 7781 and Nekkei 245% from 6988 to 24171. These parabolic increases were financed by public funds but especially by the dilution of the value of world currencies, called quantitative easing. The dollar USD, like the Denarius at the time of the Romans, dies while being diluting. In fact, all world currencies have only 5% of their purchasing power of 100 years ago, if not less. But when the price of foreign exchange does not drop dramatically because all countries are playing the same game, it is difficult to track its true purchasing power. The currency war is very real and the side effects are disastrous. In India, the government only informed its population four hours in advance of the elimination of 500 and 1000 rupees, which represents 80% of its emission. Leaving its population, 95% of whom use paper money, in a dead end. After inflating and diluting what might be, the money invested in the currency market and the stock market funds are looking for a new playing field; the old earth is burned, empty. Indeed, the correction of 70% of the BTC price in January 2018 is an excellent level of long-term purchase and there is more reason to wait for a better moment to transfer the value. Was it planned? At the beginning of 2017, the capitalization of digital assets was approximately 27 billion US dollars and 180 billion US dollars mid-year. In 2018, it is now about 800 billion US dollars and more than 325,000 transactions are processed in a day on the Bitcoin blockchain. The daily volume on the New York Stock Exchange is about 75 million dollars in transactions, Forex exchange market volume is about 4.5 billion US dollars. If we consider that part of the volume of traditional markets will be gradually transferred to this new market, its development is just beginning. “ In the next article, I’ll cover in more detail the exchange features — we had enough philosophy for now! InziderX CEO https://medium.com/inziderx-exchange/philosophy-introduction-inziderx-8495f3a30b39 #InziderX #Exchange #ico https://inziderx.io
First R1 of some stupid deficit fear mongering video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZLdqmA4nqw First of all, I don't have any formal training in macroeconomics beside a course or two in college and what I've read online, but this video was actually shown in class by my prof(thankfully not an economics prof, but a finance prof nonetheless). There will be probably be some bad economics here of my own. I am sure you guys can do a far better R1 on this then I did, and I would appreciate if someone did, actually. It is also interesting how this video is labelled "2014 Collapse" but has data from around the recession, when the government had an expansionary fiscal policy combined with a recession, leading to a larger budget deficit than usual. At 0:37
Ever think about paying your mortgage with your credit card, that's exactly what uncle sam does(by issuing new bonds to pay interest on old bonds)
Wow, first of all, the interest rate on treasury bonds is far far lower than on any mortgage or credit cards. Secondly, a sovereign borrower is not like an individual. A sovereign government has a far, far larger credit "line", is perpetual, can increase their revenue substantially through tax raises, and their debt is actually demanded by hundreds of millions of individuals and institutions around the globe. 1:08
It's such a huge amount of money, uncle sam is running out of people to borrow money from
Remember the foreign governments that lent money to Uncle Sam, when they lent money to uncle sam, something interesting happened. It made the US look richer, and their countries look poorer
Does China investing the trillions of US forex they have on US bonds really make the US dollar appreciate?I understand capital inflows can increase demand for a currency, but did it really happen to extent that it provided a significant incentive for US companies to outsource operations, as he states later on?
When a country looks poor due to America, one dollar of our money, buys a lot of their money, so they can pay their workers only a few pennies a day. With such low labor costs, they can sell their products in America for lower prices than any American manufacturer can.
Obviously the difference in currency prices can affect the trade balance, but the inherent reason why Chinese goods and manufacturing is cheaper is because the the cost of labor and operations there is just a fraction of what it is in the US, in real terms. 2:50
The easiest way for American companies to compete, is to move their factories overseas, and pay their workers a few pennies a day too. This contributes to a recession
A Bit of Math: The Equation of Freedom—A response to John Gray’s essay on Bitcoin.
John gray is a premier political philosopher, and formerly a lecture at the London School of Economics. His erroneous essay on Bitcoin deserves a reply. In the following I will refute John Gray's assertions on the functions of money and benevolence of the state, in addition to displaying that he speaks from a place of anointed authority with a misunderstand of what the concepts of digital freedom and liberty mean. It is my hope that through refuting John Gray that I can offer a framework for understanding the maxims of Digital Freedom and thus digital currencies themselves. In his essay, John Gray States: "While the policies that were adopted in the wake of the financial crash may have saved the world from a rerun of the 1930s, they also mean that money is steadily losing its value as a store of wealth. With near-zero interest rates, small savers are robbed as surely as they would have been if the original Cypriot plan had been implemented, just more slowly." His error is in assuming that crisis has been averted. It is clear when looking at the big picture over the last five years, we can see that crisis has not been averted, but rather it has been mitigated for the current point in time. The Bank of England's Governor stated that he believe that the current depression is worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the data supports this. Greece unemployment is greater than the U.S. had at the peak of the great depression, and they also in the 6th year of their Great Depression. It is no wonder that just like in the early 1930s that we are seeing the rise of Fascism in Europe again with Gold Dawn--the Neo-Nazi Party of Greece--which is now the third largest party in Greece. Many other European states are not fairing much better. Italy is clearly floundering, with a -2.4% economic growth for 2012, bail-out being likely in the next 6 months, and having their prime minister convicted of tax evasion, and then evading even the very ruling banning him from politics--corruption is an issue that cannot be understated. This is also an issue in Spain where the prime minister and his People's Party are under fire for allegedly accepting cash payments from construction firms. This is on top of the economy having a projected unemployment of above 25% until 2018, the largest protest ever for an independent Catalonia, and 20% of the economy going black. Let me remind you that this is a nation that tore itself apart in a civil war during the 1930s because of economic problems, it is not fantastical to think that it could happen again. Perhaps the only accurate part of this statement is that money is steadily losing it's value. This is due to the policies of Japan, The U.S., and The E.U. all engaging in 'quantitative easing,' which is a sophisticated word for expanding the money supply. Japan is trying to double their money supply to achieve a rate of 2% inflation 'as soon as possible,' and the U.S. has tripled their money supply since 2008. This may have helped combat the obvious deflationary forces that have been present since 2008, but this is akin to jumping out of the frying pan only to find yourself in the fire later on. I believe that we will see stagflation starting 2014, and with the global economy already doing this poor, it shall create massive political pressure that will go unheard again. Moving forward, let's look at more of the erroneous statements of Mr. Gray: "The currency has been criticized as a tool of speculators and money-laundering and its value has oscillated wildly as a result of hacking." This is an assumption that should display Mr. Gray's rudimentary knowledge of how Bitcoin and the internet functions. It has not been 'hacking' itself that has caused for the volatility of bitcoin prices, it is simply with the market growing and trying to establish itself. Some of the major bitcoin heist did temporarily effect the price, but to believe that it is the cause of volatility would be inaccurate. When you have such a small pool of wealth that is being dealt with (the market cap today is around $1.1 billion total--not just in circulation), it means that any shift of more than a few $100,000 is going to move the market quite a bit. If you moved more than $10 million into any currency on the ForEx market it would not even be noticeable--it would be a drop into the financial ocean. Later in his essay Mr. Gray displays his lack of understand about the functions of the internet: "[Cyberspace is] a site of unceasing warfare - abounding in worms and viruses, vulnerable to attack and decay, and needing scarce resources and energy to operate - the virtual realm of the internet is a projection of the human world with all its conflicts." His whimsical notions of how cyberspace functions should be more than enough to inform us that he does not understand how the internet works. First, war is an act of violence in its totality--violence simple cannot exist on the internet. Period. Calling viruses, worms, and hacking 'warfare' is a disservice to those that have died under the bludgeon of warfare, and creates a fundamental misunderstanding of what is occurring--violence is not one of them. Through allowing this ignorant idea that 'war' exist on the internet, Mr. Gray has endorsed the violence that the state brings to people like Pvt. Manning and Edward Snowden who have done no actions of violence whatsoever. The internet in itself is a place of intangibility and human expression--that is the bases for the very code the the internet is written upon, and the functions that the internet carries out. Ideas, intangibilities, concepts, exchanges of information, and knowledge--that is what the internet is in all of its forms--nothing more and nothing less. It is from this very place that programmers of the 21st century have found themselves asking the same questions as the legal philosophers of the 16th century--in a very different light however. The freedom of the internet is derived from the freedom of actions which one can do on the internet through the functions of the code that one is using--the code itself is a tool, a tool to help create these expressions and communications over the internet. Programs based upon this same form of logic that philosophers are subject to, hence why it is called logic. It is not surprising then to discover that with the building of the foundation of the internet that small community of cypherpunks found themselves discussing principals and values like freedom, privacy, and sovereignty. It was from these discussions that the question of assurance came up: How can we be assured that our privacy is safe? We cannot trust someone else with our privacy, or else it would not be private, so how to we negotiate that? The answer to this question was math. Mathematics offer us statistically assurances that if we are to use a cryptosystem, such as a PGP key, or Bitcoin, that the statistic capability to break hash function is very, very, if not impossible hard to do. Thus, we arrive at a system of privacy that offers the mathematical assurance of privacy--not the lies of men sworn to protect these privacies. Armed with this knowledge, this same community that was just a bunch of 'punks' became the vanguard of the internet privacy and freedom. From their deep thoughts to the question of liberty and government violations of that that The Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace came from. It was clear almost 20 years ago that the Internet was too powerful for megalomaniacs of governments to let it be. It was also clear that the defense of the internet was going to be needed and it is for the same reason that the Electronic Freedom Foundation was founded. Even back in 1995 it was clear that the freedom of the internet could not co-exist with the oppressive governments of the world--either the internet would be free along with the world it connects to, or it would be limited, choked, and exist only at the whims of those in the halls of power--just as our societies exist today. With the true extent of NSA spying today still unknown, I believe it is clear to see who is winning. As nation-states are clamping down on the freedom of their citizens and the internet across the globe, people are finding solidarity within that principal itself: The freedom of the Internet. As a man that has called himself as a liberal, it is sickening to here such dribble as this be written from any man that calls himself a scholar: "[Crypto-anarchy is] a philosophy that shares the fatal illusion of anarchism in all its varieties, the notion that most human beings actually want freedom from government. Invading personal freedom in times of crisis isn't always unpopular - far from it. Not only during the 20th Century but throughout history, human beings have turned to governments, and often to tyrants, for protection and security. The safety they are looking for may be just a mirage. That hasn't stopped them wanting it." I am shocked and horrified to hear a scholar advocate for the tyranny of governments--popular or not. Simply because Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini came to power through legitimate means and because a majority of citizens would willing have other citizens taken to the gallows for false promises of liberty does not excuse such actions in any way, shape, or form. Totalitarianism, Fascism, and Authoritarianism all have a deep and powerful appeal, particularly in times of great uncertainty. It is akin to the power of having Demi-God come to you and say, "Give me the power to kill and work outside of the bounds of the law--for I shall give you peace in our time." It was these very feelings that caused for the the untold deaths of tens of millions of innocents during World War II--a horror that we cannot, must not, and shall not ever experience again. What men like John Gray and his masters do not realize is that this is the beginning of the final push for a global liberated single humanity. Those that are Digital Natives understand the power of the internet and how it has, and shall continue to change the world. Digital Natives see how much closer we are to one another than we are to the elites that run run own respective nation. Our counterparts in Greece, Egypt, China, and the world over, that are struggling with the political oppression in their nation is the same struggle as our own. They are our brothers and sisters of the world, and fellow citizens of Cyberspace. It is with them, not the John Gray's of the world that we shall find liberty together. He concluded his essay with the following statement: "Whatever happens, this will surely not be the last attempt to find freedom in cyberspace. While the freedom Bitcoin promises is an illusion, it's one that will always have a grip on the human mind - the dream of finding some kind of talisman, a benevolent tyrant or a magical new technology, that can shelter us from power and crime and protect us from each other." It is tragic to see that Mr. Gray understand the human heart's most basic yearning to find freedom, yet refuses to acknowledge that technology may have brought this within our grasp. I believe that this is where there is a fundamental difference in the world view of my generation and his generation. To take from the Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace: "You are terrified of your own children, since they are natives in a world where you will always be immigrants. Because you fear them, you entrust your bureaucracies with the parental responsibilities you are too cowardly to confront yourselves. In our world, all the sentiments and expressions of humanity, from the debasing to the angelic, are parts of a seamless whole, the global conversation of bits. We cannot separate the air that chokes from the air upon which wings beat." We have moved into a world where those who hold economic and political power do not understand that which we are creating together in the Great Common known as Cyberspace, and so they seek to destroy the freedom we have created here. Because they do not understand us they have sent swarms of regulators to eat out our substance and subjugate us to laws that far outside of our jurisdiction. Because of their own stupidity and certainty of that stupidity that they have doomed themselves to fighting a war which they cannot win. That is a war with freedom itself. This is not the glistening banner of shinny, pretty freedom that American politicians speak of, but true, unadulterated, messy, freedom. The freedom that is not just a promise, but a rule. One that is blind and unbiased, that functions from maxims and not opinions, and is of rules, not rhetoric. It is from this idea of advancing freedom from a categorical imperative that we are able to see the power of the program that Bitcoin is. With bitcoin forging the way for building a Free Global Economy based upon the principals of Free Money, Liberty, Equality, and Privacy--there is great hope for the future.
Quantitative Easing And The Effect On Forex Trading. Guy Seynaeve 15 June 2020 Quantitative easing (QE) is a type of monetary policy adopted by central banks to stimulate a countries economy. Central banks face the challenge of “balancing” economic growth (making sure the economy does not grow too fast or too slow) by influencing the forces of supply and demand. Traditionally, this was ... The policy of quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative easing (QE) tapering has an effect on many markets worldwide. One of these markets is the Forex markets. In 2012, the mere news of a possible quantitative easing (QE) tapering by the Fed sent the world currency markets into a tailspin as many other currencies belonging to the developing countries (with huge fiscal deficits) faced historic ... What Exactly Is Quantitative Easing. Quantitative Easing is a large-scale expansion of Open Market Operations (OMO). This is when a central bank buys and sells government securities on the open market. The main aim of OMO is for the central bank to adjust interest rates. As the central bank buys government bonds their demand rises. The effects of Quantitative Easing on Forex The Quantitative Easing (QE) was introduced by the main global central banks as an instrument of expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stimulating stability and economic growth after the great 2008 financial crisis. With QE, the central bank purchases public (sovereign) and private (corporate) securities to increase the money supply, which in ... How Does Quantitative Easing Affect Currency Value. There has been two schools of thoughts; one that states that quantitative easing affects currency value and the other that denies the later. To better understand how and whether quantitative easing (referred as QE in short) has an effect on currency value, lets look at what QE is; What is quantitative easing meant to do? When economic times are hard, people worry about losing their jobs, and grow wary about spending money. Businesses see their customers staying away. They start losing money, and may have to lay off workers. Normally, the Bank of England would try to make things better by cutting interest rates. Lower rates mean you get less interest on your savings, so ... The effect of Quantitative Easing on the currency’s value is negative (currency depreciates). The logic is simple - more quantity of the currency by definition weakens that currency - more supply leads to lower prices. As liquid as water The name of the game central banks are playing is liquidity. By becoming the large purchaser of debt, central banks provide a vast sum of capital to the ...
So hopefully that gives you a bit of an insight into the effect of quantitative easing on currencies. Any further questions, feel free ask. -----If you find this content helpful, you’ll love ... Click the link to get two FREE months of Skillshare Premium: https://skl.sh/theplainbagel5If you'd like to support the channel, you can do so at Patreon.com/The... What effect Quantitative Easing has on the Forex Market? Quantitative easing, of course, is when central bank prints money and basically injects them into a market with the intention of spurring... For Latest Forex/Crypto News: https://bit.ly/2UnxvNm For Free Forex Education: https://bit.ly/2Tlmiwy Follow on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/fxtradingre... Interest rates and the effect on exchange rates - Duration: 4:38. Michael Norman 4,392 views. 4:38. Why does Quantitative Easing raise the value of the stock market? - Duration: 5:51. ... He gives an introduction to what Quantitative Easing (QE) is, which effect QE has on yields, take a look back at interest rate decisions and shows how QE works. ‘How one trader lost 20% of his a Be the first to join Top Traders Insiders!! https://t.me/toptraderwaitingrooming-soon (150 spots available) Launch on July 7th ----- Free Exclusive Co...